How will artificial intelligence, AI, impact jobs?
Former Harvard president and leading economist Larry Summers predicts that one-third of men will be out of work by 2050. Finance guru Suze Orman says not to be surprised if we see 25 percent unemployment by 2030. And major research institutions predict anywhere from 14 percent to 50 percent unemployment.
Even if we take the most optimistic prediction, that’s huge. Fourteen percent job loss would have massive ramifications on the economy, the stock market, the housing market, and every facet of our lives. Heck, even half of the most optimistic prediction would be an enormous game-changer.
But could this really be possible? Or is everyone panicking about what will essentially be a shift in the types of jobs that people hold — reminiscent of our shift from farm to factory, and from factory to office — but not an actual net job loss?
To answer these questions, we talk to Darrell West, author of The Future of Work, about artificial intelligence, robots, and the future of jobs.
In order to lay the foundation for this podcast discussion, here are a few basic facts about AI.
#1: AI is already here. It’s not something that “will happen” in the future; it’s something that “is happening” in the present. However, we’re not seeing job loss in the present. Why not? We discuss this question in this podcast episode.
#2: AI is not the same thing as robots. A robot is a container, a vehicle. AI is the intelligence.
When people talk about a “robot revolution,” they’re creating a compelling, visual, alliterative headline. The reality is that we won’t be interfacing with physical robots, like the Jetsons. We’ll be interacting with software, like Siri and Alexa.
#3: There’s a huge difference between Artificial Narrow Intelligence, which is AI that can perform a specific task (like the Nest Thermostat) vs. Artificial General Intelligence, which is AI that’s broadly and generally as intelligent as a human. We’re likely to see Narrow AI, not General AI, in the coming decades.
#4: Intelligence and consciousness are not the same thing. We’re accustomed to thinking of these qualities as correlated, due to our interpretation of the animal kingdom.
For the sake of this conversation, let’s define consciousness as the capacity to feel joy and suffering. We often conflate intelligence with consciousness because a dog is more intelligent than a snail, and also, a dog may have a higher capacity for both joy and suffering than a snail.
That link is breaking. We are about to see the decoupling of intelligence and consciousness.
Of course, people wonder what might happen if AI becomes conscious, but that’s outside the scope of this podcast episode. This episode is about AI’s impact on jobs. And leads to the final point …
#5: Thinking on this is divided. Some economists predict that routine, entry-level jobs will suffer the brunt of the impact. As you’re about to hear in this podcast episode, others say that high-paying jobs may also be at risk.
What’s in store for AI and the future of jobs? Listen to this interview with Darrell West, author of The Future of Work, and leave a comment!
Resources Mentioned:
- The Future of Work, book by Darrell West
- Afford Anything Facebook Community
- affordanything.com/water
- affordanything.com/store
- @paulapant on Instagram
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Harshali Patel
Until now, what I knew was AI as whole only, but after reading your blog I found that there are 2AIs Narrow AI and General AI. Thanks for elaborating the difference between the two and clearing my misconceptions.
Cheers!
Paula Pant
Glad that I could provide that distinction! Thanks for listening, Harshali!
Michelle
Enjoyed this episode! One of my favorite books that goes over so many technologies and how they will impact our lives (and money!) is this one by Ric Edelman. The Truth About Your Future: The Money Guide You Need Now, Later, and Much Later. It was written in 2017 so it’s recent enough. It expanded my thinking on so many aspects and is one of my most recommended books!
Paula Pant
That sounds like a great book! I’ll check that out … hmm, Ric Edelman could be a good podcast guest … 🙂
Thanks Michelle!
Michelle
I think Ric would be an awesome guest! I have another of his books sitting on my bookshelf because Joe @ Stacking Benjamins has mentioned it several times as one of his favorite money books.
Dana
I wonder if I just heard the episode wrong. There was kind of an effervescent tone in response to the bleak dystopia for working class people that the guest was describing.
Sarah
Thanks, Paula! Your podcasts are always so informative and eye-opening. Do you have any idea how this will affect real estate investors? If there is a high unemployment rate, how will people afford rent? And will rent prices drop because people won’t be able to afford higher prices?
Thanks!
Tasha
Love your podcasts! By the way l think you have a beautiful voice! This is a concern l have because l have young kids and worry for their future. I believe this will impacted every industry. I feel things will become very difficult for the great many. I see how difficult it is for the younger ones now. The gap is widing and the middle class is disappearing. I wish l wasn’t so in tune to people’s emotions but there is so much anger in people today, it’s bubbling under the surface. So much anxiety in mom’s and hopelessness in others. lm not sure if it’s the pressure from the gap widening or social media but if the future has high unemployment like they are predicting and greed and corruption is still king there will be unrest. That being said this podcast was helpful because instead of worying lm going to take action. Thank you.
econdude
Great episode Paula! I wonder if the government will have to offer a universal income that increases in return for a certain amount of work. How that might be paid for I have no idea. Personally I would rather work than pick at a phone all day and have a meager living. That is why I’m working as much as I can right now, and if I no longer have a choice about working at least I’ll have more options. Thanks again.