Afford Anything

  • Start Here
    • About
    • Team Afford Anything
    • Media
    • Questions?
  • Blog
    • Binge
  • Podcast
    • Binge
    • Sponsors
    • Ask a Question
    • Guest Guidelines
  • Community
  • TV
  • Explore
    • Your First Rental Property
    • Travel
    • Start a Blog
    • Earn Extra Income

Tag: the economy

November 2, 2024By Paula Pant

#554: The Most Expensive Election Trade Ever Made (A Cautionary Tale)

The U.S. jobs market hit a surprising speed bump in October, adding just 12,000 new jobs — way below the expected 100,000.

A mix of natural disasters and labor unrest explains the slump. Recent hurricanes in the Southeast wiped out somewhere between 40,000 to 70,000 jobs, while strikes at Boeing and other companies added to the slowdown. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve looks ready to cut interest rates next week by 0.25 percent.

Meanwhile, gold is having its biggest moment since 1979, but not for reasons you might expect. Central banks, especially in China and India, are loading up on physical gold like never before. Poland’s central bank has grabbed 167 tons of gold and wants to keep 20 percent of its reserves in gold — a move that hints at banks preparing for possible global shake-ups.

Remember when I-Bonds were the hot ticket in 2022, paying out 9.6 percent? Those glory days are gone. The new rate has dropped to 3.1 percent, making your standard high-yield savings account look pretty good in comparison.

In the stock market, it’s all about the “Magnificent Seven” — Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla. These tech giants account for 62 percent of all S&P 500 gains over the past year. The other 493 companies aren’t doing too shabby either, with profits expected to grow 13 percent next year.

As for the upcoming election, both presidential candidates’ economic plans would push the federal deficit higher. The Wharton School of Business says Trump’s proposals would add $5.8 trillion to the deficit over 10 years, while Harris’s would add $1.2 trillion. There’s also talk about tariffs that could spark inflation and maybe even kick off a global trade war.

Here’s the kicker: during the 2016 election, a 24-year-old Sam Bankman-Fried correctly predicted the outcome before anyone else and made $300 million in a single night trading on that information. But by morning, the markets had swung so wildly that he’d lost $600 million.

The lesson? Even if you guess the election right, predicting how markets will react is a whole different ball game — one that you should avoid. Think long-term, buy-and-hold.

Keep reading...

October 5, 2024By Paula Pant

#546: The Surprising Economic Proposal Both Candidates Agree On

The Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by half a percentage point. What does this mean for your mortgage, your savings account, and the economy at large?

In this First Friday economic episode, we dive deep into the Fed’s decision. But that’s just the beginning.

As the presidential election looms, we’ll also unpack the economic proposals from both candidates, examining how their plans for housing, taxes, and more could shape your financial future.

We emphasize critical, non-partisan analysis of economic proposals. We want you to understand complex economic issues and their potential impacts, rather than advocating for specific political positions.

Here are more specifics about this episode:

The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by half a percentage point – the first rate reduction since the pandemic – is the biggest economic story of the month.

We start by exploring the implications of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut, from falling mortgage and auto loan rates to potential increases in home prices and a tightening housing inventory. We also touch on the flip side: declining yields on high-interest savings accounts and CDs.

We unpack the reasoning behind the Fed’s decision, including shifting concerns from inflation to unemployment. We delve into economic indicators like the “dot plot” and “R-Star,” explaining their significance in predicting future interest rates and economic trends.

Then we discuss the latest jobs report, with 254,000 new jobs added in September, surpassing expectations. We break down the unemployment rate’s drop to 4.1 percent.

As the conversation shifts to the upcoming election, we take a nonpartisan approach to examining economic proposals from both presidential candidates.

The episode focuses on policy rather than politics, encouraging critical thinking about each proposal’s potential impacts.

One area of bipartisan agreement – a proposal for no tax on tips for service workers – is scrutinized. We explain why economists across the political spectrum view this idea skeptically, highlighting the lack of specificity in defining “service workers” and “tips.”

Housing policy takes center stage, with both candidates proposing regulatory streamlining for home construction and opening federal lands for development. We discuss the limitations of federal intervention in what are often local zoning and regulatory issues.

The episode also examines proposals for first-time homebuyer assistance, explaining how subsidizing demand in a supply-constrained market could potentially lead to higher housing prices.

Throughout the discussion, we emphasize the importance of evaluating these policies based on their potential economic impacts rather than political affiliations.

This episode will help you make more informed decisions about personal finances and policy preferences.

Keep reading...

Most Popular

Inflation, Illustrated
How Much is Enough?
What if We Quit Setting Goals? (Seriously?)
The Incredible Power of 10x Thinking
  • Binge
  • Questions?
  • Contact
Join 70,000+ subscribers who get free email updates.

© 2021 Afford Anything. Designed By Wilnau Design. Built by Zach Swinehart. Disclosure

© Copyright 2011 – 2025 Afford Anything. All Rights Reserved.

Website by Zach Swinehart.

  • Start Here
    • About
    • Team Afford Anything
    • Media
    • Questions?
  • Blog
    • Binge
  • Podcast
    • Binge
    • Sponsors
    • Ask a Question
    • Guest Guidelines
  • Community
  • TV
  • Explore
    • Your First Rental Property
    • Travel
    • Start a Blog
    • Earn Extra Income

Afford Anything

  • Start Here
    • About
    • Team Afford Anything
    • Media
    • Questions?
  • Blog
    • Binge
  • Podcast
    • Binge
    • Sponsors
    • Ask a Question
    • Guest Guidelines
  • Community
  • TV
  • Explore
    • Your First Rental Property
    • Travel
    • Start a Blog
    • Earn Extra Income