Afford Anything

Author: Paula Pant

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#597: Are We Heading for a Recession?, with Bob Elliott, former Head of Ray Dalio’s Investment Team at World’s Largest Hedge Fund

A recession is coming, and it might be worse than most people expect. That’s the sobering assessment from Bob Elliott, former Head of Ray Dalio’s Investment Team at Bridgewater Associates, when he joins us on the podcast.

Bob explains that several economic factors are converging to create challenging conditions. The combination of current trade policies, persistent inflation issues, and a Federal Reserve that’s constrained in its response is creating significant economic headwinds.

Tariffs play a central role in this economic outlook. While their inflationary impact remains debatable, their growth-negative effects are more certain. When imported goods become more expensive, consumers have less money to spend on other things. This reduces demand across the entire economy.

Manufacturing and reshoring aren’t simple solutions either. Bob points out that building new factories takes about five years, with payback periods stretching 30 years. This timeline explains why CEOs hesitate to make such investments, especially in an environment where policies change unpredictably.
This uncertainty has driven CEO confidence to its lowest levels since the 2008 financial crisis, further complicating economic prospects.

For individual investors, Bob offers surprisingly straightforward advice. Despite his sophisticated background managing billions, he follows a simple personal investment strategy: dollar-cost averaging and diversification. He even limits himself to reviewing his investments just once annually — typically the Wednesday before Thanksgiving.

This disciplined approach prevents overtrading and removes emotion from investment decisions — principles that apply whether you’re investing regular income or handling a windfall.

Throughout our conversation, Bob emphasizes that the US economy fundamentally runs on consumer spending. When policies redirect money from discretionary spending toward necessities, the effects ripple throughout the entire system.

Want to hear more of Bob’s insights on recession probability, investment strategy, and economic policy? Listen to the full episode now.

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#596: First Friday: Tariffs Grab Headlines, But These Financial Changes Nobody Is Talking About Will Impact You Too

Yesterday, the White House rolled out the biggest tariffs in a century, sending markets into their worst decline since the pandemic. While headlines focus on supply chains and inflation, there are important economic stories you’re not hearing about.
During the first half of this month’s First Friday episode, we dig into what nobody’s talking about. And in the second half, we grapple with the headlines.
Student loan rules just changed again. The government added new limits to Public Service Loan Forgiveness. Right now, 9.2 million people — one in five borrowers — can’t keep up with payments. Many folks don’t even know payments started again after that four-and-a-half-year break.
S&P just dropped a new report that backs what smart money already knows: index funds crush actively managed funds 90 percent of the time. Even with all those tech stocks dominating the market, you still come out ahead with simple indexing.
You know who’s gobbling up the mortgage market? Rocket Companies. They just bought both Redfin and Mr. Cooper. They’ll handle one of every six mortgages in America. They’ve positioned themselves at every step of the homebuying journey — from when you search for homes on Redfin to financing and monthly payments for the next 30 years.
The White House just made a surprising move with Bitcoin. They’re setting up a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to hold coins long-term. They’re also creating a separate stockpile for crypto they seize in legal cases. Pretty clear signal that Bitcoin stands apart from other cryptocurrencies.
In the second half, we dive into those significant new tariffs making headlines.
The S&P 500 dropped 4.8 percent on Thursday — we haven’t seen a drop like that since the pandemic. The new rules put at least a 10 percent tariff on everything coming into the country. Then come the “reciprocal” rates: 20 percent for European goods, 27 percent for items from India, and a combined 65 percent for Chinese imports.
We bring in Bob Elliott to make sense of this situation. His credentials are impressive — he spent 13 years at Bridgewater Associates (the world’s largest hedge fund), served as head of Ray Dalio’s investment team, and graduated magna cum laude from Harvard.
During the 2008 crisis, he directly advised the Treasury, Federal Reserve, and White House.
Bob offers a reality check about bringing back manufacturing jobs: you can’t build factories overnight. These investments take years, and companies hesitate to make 30-year commitments when policies change every few months.
Bob breaks down four economic forces all hitting at once: tariffs jacking up prices, government cutting spending, tax policies on hold, and the Fed moving like molasses. Put them together? Yikes. He doesn’t sugarcoat it — the short-term outlook looks “pretty negative.”

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#595: Q&A: The Scary Shift from Saving to — Gulp! — Actually Spending Your Money

Eva is finally closing in on her financial independence goals, but she’s grappling with how to make a smooth transition from accumulation to decumulation. What should she consider?

John has noticed a game-changing omission from recent discussions about traditional versus Roth IRAs. Is this as big of a deal as he thinks it is?

An anonymous caller is excited to convert his primary residence into a rental property. But he’ll only make a profit if he first sells some equities to pay down the mortgage. Is this a good idea?

Former financial planner Joe Saul-Sehy and I tackle these questions in today’s episode.

Enjoy!

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#594: How to Travel on $75 Per Day, with Nomadic Matt Kepnes

Ever wonder if you could afford to travel for months at a time? According to Nomadic Matt, who’s visited more than 100 countries over the last 19 years, you can see the world on just $75 a day. That’s about $27,375 per year, less than many people’s current cost of living.

Matt Kepnes, better known as Nomadic Matt, joins us to challenge common assumptions about travel costs. He explains that long-term travel can actually be cheaper than staying home. 

When you’re traveling, you shed many regular expenses that eat into your budget back home, like car payments, home insurance, and utility bills.

The key is to “travel like you live,” as Nomadic Matt puts it. This means using public transportation instead of taxis, shopping at local markets, and seeking out free activities — just like you might do in your hometown.

It’s not about staying at five-star resorts, but experiencing destinations authentically while keeping costs reasonable.

Nomadic Matt also breaks down several travel myths. The old advice about booking flights on Tuesdays? Outdated in today’s algorithmic pricing world. Using incognito mode to get better flight prices? No evidence supports this idea. 

He does confirm that booking round-trip flights often costs less than one-way tickets, even if you don’t use the return portion.

For those interested in credit card points, Nomadic Matt recommends choosing cards based on your specific travel goals rather than chasing the most popular options. Consider which airlines you use most and what perks you’ll actually take advantage of.

The pandemic has transformed travel in significant ways. While prices have increased and some budget travel services have disappeared, new opportunities have emerged — especially for remote workers who can now take advantage of digital nomad visas to live abroad while maintaining their income.

Whether you’re planning a two-week vacation or dreaming of becoming location-independent, Nomadic Matt’s practical advice shows how international travel is more accessible than you might have thought.

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#593: Q&A: You Made a Money Mistake. Now What?

An anonymous caller is brooding over a mistake he made in 2023 when he decided to contribute to his Roth instead of a pre-tax account. How does he get over this?

June is annoyed that she triggered short-term capital gains and wash sales when she sold assets in her taxable brokerage last year. How does she avoid these issues in the future?

Zerai wants to add mid and small-cap exposure, but his 457 plan has a limited selection of mutual funds. What’s the proper way to select the best fund among the available options?

Former financial planner Joe Saul-Sehy and I tackle these questions in today’s episode.

Enjoy!

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#591: Harvard Negotiation Expert: Why Conflict Avoidance Costs You More Than You Think

Imagine you’re about to ask your boss for a raise. Your stomach tightens. You’ve rehearsed what to say, but doubt creeps in. Should you be more assertive? More understanding of company constraints?

Bob Bordone, who has taught negotiation for 25 years including 21 years at Harvard Law School, joins us to explain why you don’t have to choose between empathy and assertiveness. In fact, combining them is key to successful negotiations.

“It might feel like a tension, but it’s not an actual one,” Bordone explains. “I can fully appreciate what you’re feeling without ever giving anything up in a negotiation.”

Bordone breaks down his three-part preparation framework:
1. Mirror work: Identify the different sides of yourself in a negotiation — the empathic side that understands company constraints, the assertive side that knows you deserve recognition, and perhaps an anxious side worried about finances.
2. Chair work: Give each side a voice through role-playing exercises, literally sitting in different chairs to embody each perspective.
3. Table work: Bring these voices into the actual negotiation in an authentic way that doesn’t make the other person feel attacked.

He also introduces fascinating concepts like “conflict recognition” — how quickly we perceive something as a conflict — and “conflict holding” — our comfort with leaving conflicts unresolved. These differences often cause relationship problems when we’re unaware of them.

“My best friend and I might debate over Flaming Hot Cheetos for 25 minutes. For me, with high conflict recognition, it’s completely fun. I go home and sleep like a baby,” Bordone says. “For someone with low conflict recognition, they might think, ‘That was horrible. Did I hurt the relationship?'”

When someone tries to shut down your request with policy (“that’s just how we do things here”), Bordone recommends what he calls the “Wizard of Oz tactic” — asking a few more questions rather than immediately accepting defeat.

The skills you develop asking for a raise transfer to other challenging conversations — from family inheritance discussions to political disagreements with colleagues.

Bordone emphasizes that conflict isn’t something to avoid but rather a normal part of relationships. The question isn’t whether we’ll have conflict, but how we handle it when it inevitably arrives.

Want to hear the full conversation? Listen to the latest episode wherever you get your podcasts.

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#590: Small Cap Showdown! Paul Merriman vs. Dr. Karsten Jeske Battle … with Millions Hanging in the Balance

In the left corner, we have Paul Merriman, the seasoned finance veteran weighing in at 183 pounds. In the right corner, Dr. Karsten Jeske, the scrappy newcomer at 208 pounds. The bell rings, and the small cap value debate begins.

This episode features a financial boxing match between two investment heavyweights with dramatically different perspectives. Paul Merriman champions diversification through the efficient frontier, which means adding small cap value to your portfolio. Dr. Karsten Jeska has “thrown cold water” on this approach, favoring simpler strategies like “VTSAX and chill.”

The stakes are high — we’re talking potentially millions of dollars in your retirement account over decades.

Merriman argues that history shows clear evidence for small cap value’s premium. From 2000 to 2009, small cap value outperformed the S&P 500 in all but one year, compounding at 10 percent while the S&P 500 returned negative 1 percent. He believes this pattern will continue, creating a powerful diversification effect when combined with broader market indexes.

Jeske counters that small cap value’s outperformance is mostly “front-loaded” in history, happening before anyone knew about it. Since 2006, small cap value has underperformed. He argues that once an advantage becomes widely known, it disappears in an efficient market. Adding small cap value might even be “di-worsification” — increasing complexity without improving returns.

The debate expands beyond small cap value to touch on:
• Active vs. passive investing strategies
• Market timing vs. buy-and-hold approaches
• Simplicity vs. complexity in portfolio construction
• The role of faith vs. evidence in investment decisions

While both experts disagree about small cap value’s future, they agree on fundamentals: invest early, stay invested for the long term, and understand that no one can predict markets with certainty.

What starts as a technical debate evolves into a philosophical discussion about evidence, probability, and the limits of our knowledge — all with millions of retirement dollars hanging in the balance.

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#589: Q&A: How Much Risk Should My Mom Take in Retirement?

Kimmy is worried that her mom’s retirement portfolio is invested too conservatively. Is she right to advise her to take on more risk?

Peyton has heard the financial advice about staying away from Whole Life Insurance as an investment, but what about as a savings account for children? Is there good a use case for this?

Jeff and his wife are in a great financial position, but they fear that their retirement savings are too heavily apportioned in traditional IRAs. Will they run into tax problems in the future?

Former financial planner Joe Saul-Sehy and I tackle these questions in today’s episode.

Enjoy!

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Afford Anything